Monday, November 28, 2011

ElPais article

"To whom it may concern. Hunch. Something is falling in the EU. Spain would prefer to participate in its gestation. Italy-Monti is already on the move .... " 140 characters do not give more, but the message sent by Javier Solana this morning on Twitter would be more than a brief comment. While still speculating on the negotiations between Germany and France to launch further fiscal integration in the euro area and unlock the European Central Bank intervention, the concern of the former High Representative of the Council for Foreign and Security Policy of the EU Common is that Spain will not miss the moment. "I think the pieces are put into place and I wish that Spain was present," he explains over the phone.

"What is brewing" is a solution to avoid a risk that is no longer a taboo: the collapse of the euro zone. "The eurozone has only 10 days left to avoid collapse," writes Wolfgang Münchau in an analysis released today by the Financial Times and Solana has told in another tweet. A lack of detail, which is being discussed is a reform of the Stability Pact, which until now has been the linchpin of the eurozone, and that would mean higher standards and greater fiscal union. What remains unclear is whether to apply to all euro area countries or only to what is beginning to call "hard core".

Solana refused to go to a two-speed Europe: "Europe already has many speeds ... not all Schengen countries are not all part of the eurozone". Faced with speculation, prefers to talk about what what you would like: "A deepening of the Stability Pact to include Fiscal Union, which in itself would be a major change."

Anyway, for the former High Representative "something important is happening." And when will be implemented? What about the EU summit on December 9? "It may be the 9th of December, or before," he says, "certainly before we go on vacation." "Europe has 10 days at most," Münchenau writes in his analysis. So the remaining days are crucial and catch Spain in full transfer of power. "I'm not criticizing anyone," Solana repeated but the warning is clear enough: "Spain has to do everything possible so that what is emerging not take us to improvise." Who has to make a move, the outgoing government or the government in pectore? Zapatero or Rajoy ¿? "I hope that in the meetings I have held I have spoken of it."

In his tweet, Solana referred to "Italy-Monti is already on the move ...." The image of the top three who held on Friday, Mario Monti, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday was reinforced by the words spoken by the French Minister of Budget, Valérie Pécresse: "Germany, France and Italy want to be the engine of a much more integrated Europe. " Rome wants to be able to influence is beyond doubt. It will see what Spain to be part of the "motor". LINK

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Merkozy Mercury

"Berlin - Germany and France move up a gear! In record time, a new €-stability agreement will be enforced-as early as the beginning of next year! This should a calm down to the financial markets.

Yesterday Italy had to pay for two-year bonds 7.8% interests, a month earlier the figure was only 4.6% yet!

According to BILD informations Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy even consider even to create the new Stability Pact initially as a contract between the national states - similar to the initial agreement on the abolition on personal borders within the EU ("Schengen Agreement"). The advantage is that it's faster and leaves less room for skeptical member states resistance. If necessary the EU Commission's opinion is not important to Merkel and Sarkozy.

Already at the next EU summit on 8 / 9 December the duo (nicknamed "Merkozy") will present its plans. Strong protest is expected from Great Britain is as they, although not part of the Euro-zone, want not to be pushed but towards the edge. (Nic.)" LINK


Friday, November 25, 2011

Putin comeback soon

link from JS twitter:
"MOSCOW — A poll released Friday predicts that Vladimir Putin's party will receive 53 percent of the vote in Russia's parliamentary election, now a little over a week away.

While still a majority, this would be a significant drop for United Russia and deprive it of the two-thirds majority that has allowed it to amend the constitution without seeking the support of the three other parties in parliament...

"Our votes mean absolutely nothing, everything has already been decided," he said. "Putin will be president and United Russia will win the election."

Putin, now prime minister after eight years as president, plans to run for a third term in March, an election he is considered certain to win." Link

Golden Fleece for Sarkozy

"His Majesty the King has granted the highest honor awarded by the Spanish monarch, the Golden Fleece, to French President Nicolas Sarkozy....
With Sarkozy, there are now 23 ladies and gentlemen of the Fleece appointed by Don Juan Carlos. By order of grant are: the Prince of Asturias, the Marquis of Mondejar (former head of the Casa del Rey), the Duke of Fernandez-Miranda, the writer José María Pemán, King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden, Grand Duke Jean Luxembourg, King Olav of Norway, Emperor Akihito of Japan, King Hussein of Jordan, Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands, Queen Margrethe of Denmark, Queen Elizabeth, the Duke of Alburquerque (former head of the Casa de Don Juan de Bourbon), King of the Belgians Albert II, King Harald of Norway, Simeon of Bulgaria, King Bhumibhol of Thailand, the Grand Duke Henri of Luxembourg, Adolfo Suárez, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Javier Solana and Victor Garcia de la Concha." LINK

most dangerous phase

"The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date," the International Crisis Group (includes Solana) said.

"Many in Syria and abroad are now banking on the regime's imminent collapse and wagering that all then will be for the better. That is a luxury and optimism they cannot afford."

Washington repeated an appeal on Wednesday for U.S. citizens to leave Syria: "The U.S. Embassy continues to urge U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available," the embassy said on its website. LINK

"Damascus/Brussels | 24 Nov 2011

The Syrian crisis has entered its most dangerous stage, requiring urgent attention to issues that the international community and Syrian opposition have largely been ignoring.

The crisis may or may not be in its final phase, but it is now defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end, heightened fears of sectarian retribution and even civil war among many, to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power. ..."

read full report here: UNCHARTED WATERS LINK

"This Wednesday could have been the turning point: The Syrian National SNC, in which the opposition groups have joined forces against President Bashar al-Assad, received the accolade. A spokesman for the European Union announced that the EU was "ready to engage in negotiations with the Syrian National Council" as long as he was working peacefully for change in the Arab State.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe called the Council on the same day as "legitimate partner, we want to work with." It was the first time that the chief diplomat of a Western country of the Syrian opposition fully signaled its confidence. And not only that Juppé also spoke out for the establishment of a security zone in northern Syria, in which civilians could find shelter and through which the supplies to the insurgents pursued by Assad should be brought. "This issue needs to be a part of the European Union and the Arab League on the other hand, studied," Juppe said after a meeting with leaders of the National Council in Paris.

The sympathy of Europeans and this means especially from France for a possible war, the Syrian dissidents critical stage win. Even in the case of Libya, it was France that the legitimacy of the rebels in Benghazi early recognized. The diplomatic formality then rang the end of Muammar Gaddafi's one. For the Parisian initiative sparked a maelstrom that gave the rebels political and military support and ultimately caused the downfall of the dictator.

Policy paper on the way toward a better future

It could now run in Syria, hope the dissidents. The next step is to overthrow Assad - again similar as in Libya - to be the foundation of a contact group in the Arab and Western policy makers and Council members meet regularly. The SNC could hope for the participation of France, Britain and Germany, by the Arabs of Saudi Arabia, Jordan , Qatar and Egypt to participate, said Anas Abdah, a member of the Central Committee of the National Council, told SPIEGEL ONLINE.

But before that want to meet in the next 60-100 days, representatives of the insurgents in Cairo to develop a policy paper that describes the path to a better future of Syria. "We will define the characteristics for the period of transition and work out, look how the principles of the future constitution," announces Abdah.This is urgently needed. Because the international community must be able to make a better picture of it, with whom she had to do it on the opposition side."We have plenty of late trying to show the world who we are."

End of August had met Syrian exiles in Istanbul and the Syrian National Council called into being. He sees himself as a "representative of the concerns and demands of the Syrian people". But only on 2 October, the Council adopted a constitution and elected an executive committee. Because of the grave struggle between opposition groups represented in the Council was: Some want to negotiate with Assad's regime, leaning the other strictly from. It even went so far that opponents of talks with Assad earlier this month threw the opposite side of the building before the Arab League in Cairo with eggs and tomatoes.

In the meantime seems to have been established by the Council. Time and again activists went to Syria with signs "The SNC represents me," filmed on the street, in the process and then the message sent abroad that the existing mainly exiles Council will support in the home. The price was high. "26 people were shot, so our advice is recognized as legitimate," says Abdah. He has traveled from the UK to Cairo on behalf of the Council to exert pressure on the Arab League, so this puts pressure on Assad.

Abdah warns of civil war in Syria."Then there will be chaos and a power vacuum. But we are an alternative to the current regime." A change in Syria is certain for him: "The question is, whether for good or bad with us, things will turn for the better.."

"If Syria slipping into civil war, the West must intervene"

Assad gives up or there is a protracted and bloody struggle to Damascus? "We still have a peaceful change of power. But that may change," says Abdah.The Council is in a dilemma: on the one hand, he supported the outdoors in the Syrian army deserters in their fight against organized Assad's troops. On the other hand, the West is currently demanding at least officially still a peaceful solution. The Council raised the specter of civil war trying to persuade the Europeans on this matter . "If Syria slipping into civil war, the West must intervene," says Abdah. The EU should not hinder the free Syrian army in the fight against the soldiers Assad. For if the dictator is eliminated because it was served to all.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul warned that the conflict in Syria, "the whole region into chaos and bloodshed" could draw. The Muslim world threatens "the darkness of the Middle Ages." Syria has reached a point of no return, so Gul. The Turks, once close allies of the regime in Damascus have broken in recent months with Assad . Prime Minister Erdogan wants to establish itself as the leader of the Muslim world and is now one of the sharpest critics of Assad. Refugees and Syrian dissidents give the Turks a shelter." source: SPIEGEL today, Link

Thursday, November 24, 2011

4th AoC meeting soon

"Sheikha Moza, UN chief to open Doha conference

Jorge Sampaio and Mohamed Jaham al-Kuwari at the press conference

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and HH Sheikha Moza bint Nasser will open the fourth UNAOC Forum for intercultural dialogue among people to be held in Doha from December 11-13, Jorge Sampaio, former president of Portugal and high representative of the UN Alliance of Civilizations has said.
Sampaio was speaking at a press conference at Qatar embassy in Paris on Wednesday.
He also added that many international figures will participate in the upcoming event. The conference, which is about intercultural dialogue among people, will also see the participation of American economist Jeffrey Sachs who will be speaking at some point in the activities.
The Ambassador of Qatar, Mohamed Jaham Abdul Aziz al-Kuwari underscored Qatar’s commitment, as a key partner to international dialogue, to work for the “values of tolerance and co-operation around the world”, especially in the context of Arab Spring.
He pointed out that the fourth edition of the forum will be “unique in its focus on youth, the role of civil society and the importance of dialogue between culture and religion”.
The upcoming forum will be just as unique in its strong emphasis on HH Sheikha Moza’s commitment “to the role of women in intercultural dialogue among people,” he said.
Commenting on the event, Sampaio said it will be a forum of four “Ds”: “dialogue, dignity, democracy and development”, stressing that its ultimate goal is to make diversity the fourth pillar of development and a top priority for the political agenda. He also highlighted the will of the organising and participating states to reach strong and tangible commitments, citing the will “to reform the way we teach history” in order to “further improve mutual understanding through education” and underscoring “mutual historical ignorance” still rampant among people and nations.
The Doha Forum will be a “Forum of results” with strong “commitments which all participants will meet”, he added. At a time when dialogue among people determines global geopolitical stability as well as the development of a number of countries, the fourth Forum, which will see the participation of civil society for the first time, will be according to Sampaio a “turning point” and “major point of renewal” over the five years since the launch of the Alliance of Civilizations.
This edition will include new partners and take onboard new challenges, notably diplomatic, democratic and geopolitical challenges as pre-requisites for development...

Sampaio pointed out that over 2,500 people from 130 countries are expected to attend the forum, including heads of state, foreign ministers, NGOs, civil society representatives, foundations, media and corporations representatives.
Sampaio said that the 2013 forum will be held in Austria...."

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

back from the moon

Javier Solana
Landed in Madrid after three days in China very wealthy. The crisis, Paper G20, IMF, China, Brics.Recursos, energy, water, etc.Seriedad and openness.
Javier Solana
From China in the network impossible to twitter.just inside China.
Javier Solana
Interesting debate on the crisis involved the Chinese and Germans in these matches and some discordancia.Inquieta momentos.Muchas

where is Javier Solana?

since days no posts, news from JS , not even on twitter where he usually presses the keyboardtaps like wild.
now I have the answer: he was busy with some "retired" activity in Beijing, China.

Already on Nov 18 I posted over at FB:

today I found:

New strategies for the Asian Century

Munich Security Conference convenes with the event series "Munich Security Conference Core Group" for the first time in Beijing

Of 20 to 21 November 2011 meeting, the Munich Security Conference Core Group Meeting for the first time in Beijing. (From left) Ambassador Dirk Brengelmann, Beigeordnteter NATO Secretary General, Ambassador Yang Wenchang, President CPIFA, MSC Chairman Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, China's Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun, president of the China Development Institute Zheng Bijian and Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Emily Haber. Image: Hou Kaiyu

Asia's rise will change the world and make new partnership strategies and dialogue patterns of the West needed to respond to the challenges of the 21st Century to find common solutions. For the international foreign and security policy, this makes the Munich Security Conference (MSC) of 20 with their to 21 November 2011 for the first time in Beijing will new series of "Munich Security Conference Core Group" to contribute.

The past three years, besides the annual large main conference in Munich held new and smaller event format of the MSC is intended to give an exclusive and high-level participants in alternating capitals, the opportunity to discuss the confidential setting current issues of international security policy and to develop sustainable solutions. With the conference in Beijing puts the incipient Asian century into the focus of the security conference. The latest global financial crisis has highlighted the limits of Western influence and demonstrated how dynamically to form a new world order begins. In the speed increases occur in Asia and makes new growth policy centers that will eventually lead to global political power shifts. And is becoming increasingly clear that without a close partnership and cooperation between Asia and Euro-Atlantic community, the challenges of the 21st Century will not be overcome.

Significant backlogs in the dialogue with Asia

That's reason enough for the Munich Security Conference, the event series "Munich Security Conference Core Group" to Washington DC (2009) and Moscow (2010) 2011 in Beijing to continue now. "China has just acquired by its growing economic and military power of a global political significance, we must increasingly contribute to our strategic considerations into account," says the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger. We also must recognize that China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Without the Chinese vote will happen in the future a little. If we in the 21st Century would discuss about global security issues that go far longer without China. Here, give it a whole lot of catching up, says Ischinger. Long, the German and European economy and Asia as major growth market have discovered, while the European foreign and security policy, these new dimensions have not already covered. "Europe is emerging as a foreign and security policy actor to disappear from the radar screen of the governments in Asia," warns Ischinger. While the United States to align their policies more and more on Asia, Europe, it still lacks the overall strategic vision. For this purpose, the Munich security conference will contribute to establish comprehensive strategic relations with China and the new power centers in the region. There are already points of China's interest has grown visibly in the Munich Security Conference in recent years. In February 2010, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, the first time spoke in Munich and took his speech, an increasingly confident China's foreign policy. In his greeting to the Core Group meeting , Yang Jiechi, paid tribute to the Munich Security Conference for its decision to hold this year's expert meeting in Beijing. Thus, the MSC China trade fair in the field of global security policy at a special meaning to build mutual trust and to cooperate closely. The need for the international community to jointly meet the challenges of security policy is more urgent than ever, said Chinese Foreign Minister. China while pursuing peaceful development and compete actively for an in-depth exchanges and closer cooperation with other states.

High-level occupation in Beijing

In cooperation with the Körber Foundation and the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs(CPIFA) are currently discussing in Beijing, headed by Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger about 30 western foreign and security policy makers and business leaders on issues of global and regional security with 30 other senior Chinese experts and Government representatives. Among this year's conference participants are included former Secretary General of NATO and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German Parliament, Ruprecht Polenz, State Secretary at the Foreign Ministry Emily Haber, Parliamentary State Secretary, Federal Ministry of Defence Christian Schmidt, the Vice . Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Denisov, the financier George Soros, Sir David Wright, vice chairman of the board of Barclay's Capital and Jay Ralph, CEO of Allianz Asset Management. From the Chinese side take to the MSC meeting of experts including former State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan, Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun and Fu Ying, and former Deputy Chief of General Staff of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Xiong Guankai, in part. In this circle is the conversation between the West and China on current security challenges, ranging from cyber warfare on the financial crisis to the resources and the security situation in the Middle East are deepened. The conclusion of this year's Core Group meeting is a joint meeting with State Councillor Dai Bingguo in "Zhongnanhai", the headquarters of the Communist Party of China.

"The meeting in Beijing to make clear that we want to shape the relationship is not in rivalry, but in cooperation with China to share the security challenges of the 21st Century to meet, "says Ischinger. To talk about the status quo is, is no longer sufficient. Would happen here anymore, he said, referring to the complex tasks ahead of the coming decades. And he finally connects with the new dialogue is another request: "It would be nice if would henceforth take place every year a considerable number of Chinese decision-makers the way to Munich."

Updated: 21:11:11, 7.40 clock

This "core group" meetings were not open to the media.

"Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the MSC, informed on Monday evening at a press conference about it only briefly. According to Ischinger put the motto of the meeting the "growing global role of China, India and other Asian countries" materials at the subjects' change of global military structure "," Energy and Environment "," Challenges in the non-traditional areas "and" influence the international financial crisis on the safety of "discussion about 30 western foreign and security policy makers and business leaders with 30 senior Chinese experts and government representatives...." Link

(farmer: Ischinger, the organziser of this conference spoke at another (cultural) conference just some weeks ago, were I was also speaking 2 years ago. I have talked there about "the rise of the beast in Europe".(I happened to present just before the main speaker at the conferece,so the place was crowded) Back then the program officials did not even dare to mention me in their published program. After my presentation they said this happened "accidently" and if I would wish to have printed a "personal" programm where I would be also included. Now, with such connections, I understand their caution with my speech. lol)

stay tuned!


Sunday, November 20, 2011


Russian sends war ships in mediterranian, Canada orders its warships to stay in Mediterranean
"Russian warships have entered Syrian territorial waters in an aggressive move designed to prevent any NATO-led attack on the country under the guise of a “humanitarian intervention..."

"Military intervention in Syria would “shake the entire Middle East,” President Bashar Assad said on Saturday in his first interview with Western media since the start of a popular uprising challenging his authoritarian rule. LINK

AOC's Zapatero's party lost the Spain election yesterday
"The fifth casualty on the unstoppable spreading of the debt crisis tsunami in Europe has taken its toll in the form of a new government formed in Spain, following the previous leadership debacle in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. The outgoing Spanish Socialist had a resounding defeat against the centre-right People's Party party, with its new PM Rajoy securing an absolute majority in the lower house." Link

"EU Pushes Scenarios for Euro Bond

"The introduction of a joint “eurobond” that would replace national issuance by individual members of the eurozone could offer the best solution for policymakers seeking a more stable sovereign debt market, according to a study by the European Commission.

To be published on Wednesday, but seen by the Financial Times, the study argues that the creation of commonly backed “stability bonds” would ensure all eurozone members could meet their financing needs and create a vast market that could compete with US Treasuries as a global benchmark....

José Manuel Barroso, Commission president, is also expected to propose increasing EU surveillance of eurozone budgets on Wednesday that could be implemented immediately. According to a draft, the proposal includes requiring eurozone governments to submit budgets to Brussels for evaluation before they are turned over to national parliaments..."

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Lord of the boards: "open your eyes"


Solana outlined the threeway-

new world order

  • "Germany has to understand that one can not escape the crisis," said the former Minister of Foreign Affairs on the crisis
  •   Solana outlined the new world order three-way

    "Few people are able to draw with broad strokes and in just half an hour and a map of current international relations as accurate and contextualized as Javier Solana .

    At a conference organized by the chair "la Caixa" Economy and Society, the Spanish EXPOLIT has shown a rich world view, from his extensive experience as Foreign Minister, Secretary General of NATO, and High Representative for Foreign Policy Council and Security Policy of the European Union to discuss the crisis, the United States , the Arab Spring or unstable role of the European Union in changing and unpredictable times.

    More Europe

    Regarding the economic crisis, Solana has warned that only comes out of the crisis "with measures to promote employment and productivity," all at a good pace and enough to create economic growth, but at a rate at which can also go the peripheral countries of the eurozone. With the debt crisis spreading peripheral countries including Austria andFrance , the EXPOLIT has said that " Germany can no longer close our eyes " and that the only solution passes through a greater unity between states .

    Europe must understand that "the G7 are over" , and now are the U.S., the European Union and China who play the game of chess to three bands of the global elite. "From Spain we do not believe what is happening in the world, and we will do well only if we adapt," said the exmandatario, but has clarified that the role of emerging countries is crucial. He stressed the trajectory of China, which has emerged from the dictatorship of Mao in a very short period and whose younger generation will "live the moment to become world's largest economy."

    Transition to democracy

    On the Arab Spring , Solana has clarified that Tunisia and Egypt have three fundamental things that should dump now: provide opportunities for the large young population, a public sector modernization and efforts to combat corruption. Gave as an example to Indonesia and Turkey, examples of countries that have successfully completed the transition to democracy, and added that the specific case of Egypt will be "key" and that the West has to strive to "do well" next steps in the African country.

    For it was with Gonzalez foreign minister, two countries will play a key role in the Islamic world in the coming years: Turkey , which seeks to occupy the important role they once had, and Iran , whose situation is "more complex" represent a Shiite country with "universal" and possess nuclear material.

    Pakistan, the new threat

    Bin Laden's murder has led to the weakening of Al Qaeda , but also a resurgence of tensions between the U.S. and Pakistan, said Solana. The country has taken to come to China and Saudi Arabia, creating a connection that will be talking about in the coming years.

    Special mention should be Japan , a country that is beginning to replace copies of his crisis, but that has plunged the world into a crossroads on energy model to follow, delaying the new commitment to nuclear energy. "The beginning of the XXI century is proving to be completely unpredictable," concluded the exmandatario."