It's hard to know how this new drama will develop, but will certainly contribute to a clear restructuring of the power structures within Hamas that affect also its relations with neighboring countries, including Israel and the Authority itself Palestine.
The Hamas leadership was exercised from its headquarters located in Syria, and from there he managed relations with the regimes of Iran and Syria, its biggest supporters in the area before the Arab Spring . Leaders of the interior remained in the background in Gaza to defend itself from any attack by Israel.
In recent months there has been a profound change in roles. Hamas leaders inside, in view of the enormous changes in the region, have decided to take the reins of the organization and demonstrate its leadership in the battle against the Israeli occupation. Several factors have contributed to accelerate this change.
By collapsing relations with Damascus, where Hamas maintained its position against Bashar al-Assad, the leading group with the head Khaled Meshal had to leave Syria and even now is scattered by different Arab countries unable to rebuild their base. Moreover, this position against the Syrian Government has done nothing to hinder its relations with Iran.
Power struggles have been exacerbated by declaring Khaled Meshal, current supreme leader, the desire to leave his post. Two candidates have appeared on the scene: Musa Abu Marzouk, based in Cairo, and Ismail Haniya, the current leader of Gaza. A second victory of the supporters consolidate the process of transfer of power in Gaza.
The PLO's decision to vote against the UN General Assembly will recognize her, Hamas provides another possible element to reinvigorate.Israel has indicated that it will oppose by all means to such recognition, coming to withhold taxes it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, to denounce the Oslo Accords and even trying to overthrow Mahmoud Abbas. This position of Israel, be implemented in whole or in part, is a clear beneficiary: faction Hamas and Gaza, in front the occupant.
Gaza leaders have to their credit the recent visit of the Emir of Qatar, the first Arab leader to visit that level the Gaza providing legitimacy and economic resources, probably followed by Erdogan. Also the fact that in a number of Arab countries that had spring -of the Muslim Brotherhood who feels Hamas-rule follower, is invaluable.
In the desire of the leaders of Hamas in Gaza to be spearheading the battle against the occupation lies partly launches bombs to Israel in recent weeks and the response of the Israeli military explosive killing one its most important leaders, Ahmed al Jabari, and enormous damage.They are aware that Netanyahu can not appear weak in its response to Hamas, especially after having convened for January elections, however, are willing to suffer the consequences.
But in the end, Israel will not get what he wants. He failed with the operation Cast Lead , remember that your goal was to end the power of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and greater security. Not solve the security problems in Israel and today is reunited with a stronger Hamas inside Gaza.
As Hussein Ibish writes in Foreign Policy, "Israel can once again win a battle but will lose the war and their best friends in the world."
Hopefully common sense returns through rapid ceasefire. Several countries are mediating right now. I hope to succeed in their purpose, because as you said Efraim Halevy, former head of the Mossad smart, "we both agree that Hamas retains the power, strange as it may seem."
Javier Solana. ESADEgeo President and Distinguished Research Fellow Brookings Institution.